Posts Tagged ‘Isaac Asimov’

The Last Question

Sunday, June 7th, 2009

A Univac computer at the Census Bureau.

A Univac computer at the Census Bureau.

The most wicked show I ever saw was not in a theatre or on TV. It was at a planetarium. Highly touted in the press, the presentation was Isaac Asimov’s short story “The Last Question.”

The question, asked of a colossal computer named Multivac, was whether or not entropy could be reversed (and life continue). Multivac answered, “INSUFFICIENT DATA FOR MEANINGFUL ANSWER.”

Over trillions of years mankind fills not only our home galaxy but all the galaxies of the universe. Future generations ask the question again and again of Multivac’s successors which have more and more intelligence. Before the last man fuses with Multivac which has now become Cosmic-AC, he asks the question again and AC replies, “THERE IS AS YET INSUFFICIENT DATA FOR A MEANINGFUL ANSWER.”

The story ends this way:

The consciousness of AC encompassed all of what had once been a Universe and brooded over what was now Chaos. Step by step, it must be done.

And AC said, “LET THERE BE LIGHT!”

And there was light –

Humans have a tendency to make gods of created things and of what their hands have made. This tendency is aptly illustrated in Asimov’s story and in reader’s/viewer’s reactions to it. Despite gross scientific inaccuracies,* the story receives raves across the web. Readers revel in its blasphemy. One declared “I have found a new religion.” Some acknowledge that seeing this show led them to embrace atheism.

In “The Thinking Machine,” an Asimov essay which corresponds to this story, he declared that the only difference between a computer and the human brain is complexity. Evidently he also believes that the only difference between God the Creator and a computer is an even higher level of complexity. In his “wisdom,” he reached the pantheistic religious position that the totality of the universe itself is god.

I consider “The Last Question” the most wicked show I’ve seen because it directly, willfully defies the first and second commandments, “You shall have no other gods before me,” and “you shall not make for yourself an idol.” Fancy throwing away faith on untenable hypotheses such as hyperspace and the non-existence of spirit.


*For example, Asimov declares all galaxies are the same and inhabitable; they are not; and at the rate they are stretching apart many will not even be visible from ours on a time scale far shorter than his story encompasses.

The Foundation and Science

Sunday, February 15th, 2009

 

Nova remnant in the Z Camelopardalis double star system. Image courtesy of NASA/JPL-Caltech.

Nova remnant in the Z Camelopardalis double star system. Image courtesy of NASA/JPL-Caltech.

One of the top-ten all time great Sci-Fi books on almost any list is Isaac Asimov’s Foundation Trilogy. As a story it is superb. As science, well…

Asimov has swarms of humanity living in star-crowded regions of space where, to put it mildly, earth-like planets, and therefore life, would be highly unlikely. While reading (and re-reading) the Foundation series, the thought of excess radiation in galactic centers used to gnaw at the back of my mind, making it hard for me to suspend disbelief as completely as I could wish.

Today, many other obstacles to an Asimovian cosmos suggest themselves: the dustiness of the central galactic areas, the likelihood of perturbation of planetary orbits in so crowded a region (almost guaranteed to abort the formation of an earth-like planet), and above all the greedy black holes at galactic centers.

All told, it is highly improbable life would flourish in the busy centers of galaxies.

Since carbon is the sole element suitable to base life on (silicon, the only other candidate, doesn’t inspire much enthusiasm), we can safely say higher life forms will probably need an environment hospitable to carbon-based life—in other words, an earth-like planet.

A few years ago, for a school project (which, unfortunately I have misplaced), I made some conservative calculations of the chance of there being another earth-like planet in our galaxy. I began by eliminating from consideration all stars in multiple star systems (or in densely populated regions which would likely disrupt the stable planetary orbit needed for the survival of higher forms of life). This left me with less than half the starting population of stars, since binaries and other multiples make up the majority of stars we see. I then applied other factors.

At that time, about 100 extra-solar planets had been discovered. Because of eccentric orbits, star types, and masses, not one could conceivably support life as we know it. I took this to be characteristic of the galaxy as a whole, and estimated conservatively that perhaps one star in 50 might have a rocky planet with the carbon and trace elements necessary for life. We have now found almost 350 extra-solar planets and still not found a truly earth-like one.

privileged planetThis still left a huge pool of stars which could conceivably possess earth-like planets. But when I began to demand other essentials of life—water, for instance—the number dwindled. In the end, I decided I’d be surprised if there were another planet like good ol’ earth in our galaxy. The DVD Privileged Planet takes just a few necessities of life and leaves us looking at odds of one in 100 trillion. Since there are under 250 billion stars in our galaxy, those odds are pretty steep. They are also too conservative. Hugh Ross of Reasons to Believe has assembled a list of over one hundred essentials for higher life, which, if factored out, would make the chances of another earth-like planet infinitismal. The earth is such a special place that its development by a superior power seems almost proven.

So while the Foundation Trilogy makes a great yarn, one which I will almost certainly re-read yet again, Sci-Fi writers today need to readjust their premisses.